KathDen, 'Wicked', & 'Moana' to put Philippines back in the box office map | November Preview

With the surprising underpeformance of Transformers One and Joker: Folie à Deux, & the lack of local hits (Balota objectively did fine), Philippines' box office momentum stalled during September and October. Worry not as Filipino audiences seem ready to return to the big screen once again as studios are about to bring out the big guns this November.

Wicked, Hello Love Again, & Moana 2

Let's take a look at the films to be released this month.*

November 2

1. My Hero Academia: You're Next

Thoughts: Fans of My Hero Academia will surely deliver for the new film here. 

November 6

1. The Heirloom: Pusaka
2. We Live in Time
3. Swan Lake
4. Red One

Thoughts: Five years ago, Red One would've grossed a decent amount of money here: It's an action comedy starring Dwayne Johnson, Chris Evans, and Lucy Liu. Now, moviegoers are becoming more picky and this film arguably feels like more of a streaming movie that they're willing to wait for it to arrive on Netflix or Prime Video. However, while distracted for a much bigger The Rock movie this month, Dwayne Johnson can still do his premiere week marketing stunts and at least bring some casuals in to the cinemas. That's honestly a win for cinema and studios: an original movie making money.

November 13

1. Anoko Wa Daare?
2. Hello, Love, Again
3. SANA: Let Me Hear

Thoughts: Kathryn Bernardo and Alden Richards could not promote and this can still deliver millions for its production studios. But that's not what's happening here. Following the Un/Happy For You template, the duo are already barnstorming malls around the country more than a month before the film's release date. Exhibiting the chemistry between the A-list leads in a mall show is the right approach for marketing a romance movie in the country: audiences then feel it and might be convinced to purchase a cinema ticket. 

That's exactly what's happening with Hello, Love, Again. Fifteen days ahead of its release in the major malls we're tracking, the film has already sold more than 10x tickets vs. Un/Happy For You at the same T-minus release point and is also outpacing blockbusters such as Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2. In SM Mall of Asia alone, as of this writing, the film has already booked tickets worth more than ₱280K for its opening day (including midnight screenings). It's just a matter of how big it can go on opening day. 

Other local studios or MMFF 2024 entries should be cutting deals now with local exhibitors to place their (hopefully well-produced) trailers in front of this film. The challenge here is: can it have the longevity given the two high profile releases on the next two weeks after its premiere? However, is still that a problem though if you're already opening way too high? Hopefully, critics and audience embrace this sequel. 

November 20

1. Conclave
2. Shutter: 20th Anniversary
3. Wicked

Thoughts: Tracking in America is already suggesting a potential breakout for Wicked. We're not yet seeing the same here in the country in terms of pre-sales. However, when the final marketing push begins and the powerhouse cast is present everywhere, things may start to look different. Disney live-action musicals have excelled here, and Wicked Manila also did well so there's definitely interest. Sandwiched between two sure-fire hits, can it defy the odds? One can be cautiously optimistic.

November 23

1. The Quintessential Quintuplets Specials 2

November 27

1. Moana 2

Thoughts: Even overseas observers were shocked on how Inside Out 2 opened here in the country. It was the perfect storm though: lots of holidays on opening week, buzzy and meme-able content, goodwill from the first movie, & options drought for moviegoers. Moana may not have all those but the character alone seems huge enough to secure a massive opening.

Moana grossed $3.9 million in the country back in 2016 and it was universally beloved. For a best-case scenario, were looking at a Frozen-level jump (Frozen 2 banked a huge $16 million total here vs. predecessor's $2.7 million). Inside Out 2 made $14 million back in June - showing Filipinos can sometimes bring the bucks to Disney. Just making half of that would be huge already but we're thinking that could just be the ceiling.

*Release subject for change. List could be edited for additional releases.